Speed Ratings Team Projections for Nike Cross Nationals

It was beginning to appear that nationals this year might be a two team race between the American Fork and Fayetteville-Manlius boys, but after La Salle Academy's dominant win on the Northeast Regional racing on the same day and same course as the New York champs F-M, another team appears to be in a good postion coming to Portland to compete for a national title.

Thanks to the great work by Bill Meylan and his speed ratings system developed at tullyrunners.com, we can do an almost instant projection of how the national race might shake out based on the 22 boys and 22 girls qualifying teams' performances at their regional qualifier meets.

NXN Team Projections: Boys - Girls

 

2014 NXN Boys Team Qualifiers Projections Based on Speed Ratings

(Based on speed ratings from regional qualifier performances only)

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    Team                        Pts     1    2    3    4    5   (6)  (7) 

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  1 La Salle (RI)               156    18   19   30   39   50   118  132 

      Total Time: 2:36      Average: 31.20      1-5 Split: 32

  2 Fayetteville-Manlius (NY)   170     3   23   25   46   73   81   135 

      Total Time: 2:50      Average: 34.00      1-5 Split: 1:10

  3 American Fork (UT)          170     6    7   13   61   83   93   128 

      Total Time: 2:50      Average: 34.00      1-5 Split: 1:17

  4 Ventura (CA)                186    14   17   38   40   77   95   125 

      Total Time: 3:06      Average: 37.20      1-5 Split: 1:03

  5 Davis (UT)                  195    20   24   31   58   62   124  137 

      Total Time: 3:15      Average: 39.00      1-5 Split: 42

  6 St. Anthony's (NY)          221    12   22   26   57   104  109  112 

      Total Time: 3:41      Average: 44.20      1-5 Split: 1:32

  7 Liverpool (NY)              240    15   28   44   66   87   122  127 

      Total Time: 4:00      Average: 48.00      1-5 Split: 1:12

  8 Sandburg (IL)               242    41   43   47   51   60   69   80  

      Total Time: 4:02      Average: 48.40      1-5 Split: 19

  9 North Central (WA)          244     1   32   48   65   98   131  133 

      Total Time: 4:04      Average: 48.80      1-5 Split: 1:37

 10 Brea Olinda (CA)            252    11   27   35   64   115  116  147 

      Total Time: 4:12      Average: 50.40      1-5 Split: 1:44

 11 Jurupa Hills (CA)           258    10   16   34   85   113  138  143 

      Total Time: 4:18      Average: 51.60      1-5 Split: 1:43

 12 CBA (NJ)                    268     8   42   56   74   88   108  136 

      Total Time: 4:28      Average: 53.60      1-5 Split: 1:20

 13 Wayzata (MN)                273     9   21   53   79   111  119  129 

      Total Time: 4:33      Average: 54.60      1-5 Split: 1:42

 14 Carmel (IN)                 300     5   67   68   76   84   139  141 

      Total Time: 5:00      Average: 1:00.00      1-5 Split: 1:19

 15 Daniel Boone (TN)           341     2   45   72   92   130  149  152 

      Total Time: 5:41      Average: 1:08.20      1-5 Split: 2:08

 16 Timpanogos (UT)             351    54   59   63   75   100  144  146 

      Total Time: 5:51      Average: 1:10.20      1-5 Split: 46

 17 Sioux Falls Lincoln (SD)    388     4   86   89   99   110  123  126 

      Total Time: 6:28      Average: 1:17.60      1-5 Split: 1:46

 18 Severna Park (MD)           389    55   70   78   90   96   151  153 

      Total Time: 6:29      Average: 1:17.80      1-5 Split: 41

 19 Southlake Carroll (TX)      395    29   33   102  114  117  134  150 

      Total Time: 6:35      Average: 1:19.00      1-5 Split: 1:28

 20 Edina XC Running Club       404    36   82   91   94   101  145  148 

      Total Time: 6:44      Average: 1:20.80      1-5 Split: 1:05

 21 The Woodlands (TX)          406    49   52   97   103  105  106  120 

      Total Time: 6:46      Average: 1:21.20      1-5 Split: 56

 22 Summit (OR)                 476    37   71   107  121  140  142   -  

      Total Time: 7:56      Average: 1:35.20      1-5 Split: 1:43




2014 NXN Girls Team Qualifiers Projections

(Based on speed ratings from regional qualifier performances only)


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    Team                        Pts     1    2    3    4    5   (6)  (7) 

=====================================================================================

  1 Fayetteville-Manlius (NY)   125    10   15   23   25   52   82   124 

      Total Time: 2:05      Average: 25.00      1-5 Split: 42

  2 Carmel (IN)                 179    14   18   41   44   62   87   94  

      Total Time: 2:59      Average: 35.80      1-5 Split: 48

  3 North Naperville (IL)       200    17   21   26   46   90   93   131 

      Total Time: 3:20      Average: 40.00      1-5 Split: 1:13

  4 Great Oak (CA)              207     5   28   50   56   68   76   80  

      Total Time: 3:27      Average: 41.40      1-5 Split: 1:03

  5 Blacksburg (VA)             213    13   20   36   42   102  116  126 

      Total Time: 3:33      Average: 42.60      1-5 Split: 1:29

  6 Palatine (IL)               219     7   33   43   64   72   107  134 

      Total Time: 3:39      Average: 43.80      1-5 Split: 1:05

  7 Saratoga Springs (NY)       234     6   32   58   61   77   115  144 

      Total Time: 3:54      Average: 46.80      1-5 Split: 1:11

  8 Wayzata (MN)                239     3   22   29   86   99   108  140 

      Total Time: 3:59      Average: 47.80      1-5 Split: 1:36

  9 Unionville (PA)             280     4   37   59   83   97   138  152 

      Total Time: 4:40      Average: 56.00      1-5 Split: 1:33

 10 Western Cary (NC)           283     1   48   63   70   101  122  130 

      Total Time: 4:43      Average: 56.60      1-5 Split: 1:40

 11 Camas (WA)                  290    16   19   40   106  109  112  149 

      Total Time: 4:50      Average: 58.00      1-5 Split: 1:33

 12 Saugus (CA)                 294    12   53   69   71   89   100  114 

      Total Time: 4:54      Average: 58.80      1-5 Split: 1:17

 13 Coe-Brown Academy (NY)      323     9   11   51   125  127  147  148 

      Total Time: 5:23      Average: 1:04.60      1-5 Split: 1:58

 14 Desert Vista (AZ)           332     2   27   74   110  119  120  137 

      Total Time: 5:32      Average: 1:06.40      1-5 Split: 1:57

 15 Willmar (MN)                333    57   65   66   67   78   92   136 

      Total Time: 5:33      Average: 1:06.60      1-5 Split: 21

 16 Shenendehowa (NY)           354    55   60   73   75   91   128  145 

      Total Time: 5:54      Average: 1:10.80      1-5 Split: 36

 17 Lewisville Hebron (TX)      354    38   39   84   95   98   141  150 

      Total Time: 5:54      Average: 1:10.80      1-5 Split: 1:00

 18 American Fork (UT)          355    35   49   54   104  113  121   -  

      Total Time: 5:55      Average: 1:11.00      1-5 Split: 1:18

 19 Coeur D'Alene (ID)          376    24   47   85   88   132  146  151 

      Total Time: 6:16      Average: 1:15.20      1-5 Split: 1:48

 20 Marcus (TX)                 401    30   45   79   118  129  139  153 

      Total Time: 6:41      Average: 1:20.20      1-5 Split: 1:39

 21 La Salle (RI)               402    31   34   103  111  123  135  143 

      Total Time: 6:42      Average: 1:20.40      1-5 Split: 1:32

 22 Davis (UT)                  407     8   81   96   105  117  133  142 

      Total Time: 6:47      Average: 1:21.40      1-5 Split: 1:49